New Frontiers in Conflict Prevention: Integrating Artificial Intelligence in Early Warning and Response Systems in Kenya

Abstract

With the proliferation of intra-state conflicts in Kenya, traditional methods of detecting potential conflicts and recommending timely intervention measures have proved to be largely ineffective. This paper explores how integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) in conflict early warning systems can enhance peace and security in Kenya. It focuses on how AI can augment human capabilities in facilitating effective proactive measures in de- escalating conflicts. The paper is guided by three research objectives: first, assessing the efficacy of AI in systematically identifying indicators and patterns of conflict-triggers in Kenya; second, examining how AI can enhance real-time sharing of information to the pertinent actors for timely interventions; and third, evaluating the impact of integrating AI in Kenya’s conflict prevention initiatives. The paper is guided by the securitization theory as propounded by Ole Wæver of the Copenhagen School. The theory dispels the notion that national security issues arise naturally. Instead, the securitizing agents within the state designate select issues as threatening, consequently moving them from low to high priority security concerns, thereby necessitating concerted action. The paper adopts an explorative research design and secondary data on conflict early warning and artificial intelligence from published and unpublished sources. It finds that AI can effectively analyse vast amounts of historical, current and emerging data in order to systematically identify conflict triggers and patterns for effective conflict prevention. Moreover, it submits that AI has unmatched capacity to sustain real-time sharing of information among the relevant actors in conflict prevention infrastructure thereby guaranteeing timely responses to check the escalation of conflicts. The paper also observes that AI has the potential of enhancing Kenya’s preparedness and response capabilities thereby minimising economic, political and human losses occasioned by violent conflicts. It recommends the urgent need to revamp the existing EarlyWarning Response Systems (EWRS) by integrating AI capabilities to amplify human capabilities. In addition, the paper recommends fast-tracking of the roll-out of Information Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure to enhance real-time sharing of information and creating a lean Infrastructure for Peace (I4P) for effective delivery. Lastly, the paper underscores the inevitability of visionary leadership to provide policy guidelines on integrating AI in conflict prevention initiatives and the general operationalization of Early Warning and Response Systems (EWRS).